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  1. (1) Background: Frequent fire, climate variability, and human activities collectively influence savanna ecosystems. The relative role of these three factors likely varies on interannual, decadal, and centennial timescales. Here, we tested if Euro-American activities uncoupled drought and fire frequencies relative to previous centuries in a temperate savanna site. (2) Methods: We combined records of fire frequency from tree ring fire scars and sediment charcoal abundance, and a record of fuel type based on charcoal particle morphometry to reconstruct centennial scale shifts in fire frequency and fuel sources in a savanna ecosystem. We also tested the climate influence on fire occurrence with an independently derived tree-ring reconstruction of drought. We contextualized these data with historical records of human activity. (3) Results: Tree fire scars revealed eight fire events from 1822–1924 CE, followed by localized suppression. Charcoal signals highlight 13 fire episodes from 1696–2001. Fire–climate coupling was not clearly evident both before and after Euro American settlement The dominant fuel source shifted from herbaceous to woody fuel during the early-mid 20th century. (4) Conclusions: Euro-American settlement and landscape fragmentation disrupted the pre-settlement fire regime (fire frequency and fuel sources). Our results highlight the potential for improved insight by synthesizing interpretation of multiple paleofire proxies, especially in fire regimes with mixed fuel sources. 
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  2. Abstract. Fire frequency exerts a fundamental control on productivity and nutrientcycling in savanna ecosystems. Individual fires often increaseshort-term nitrogen (N) availability to plants, but repeated burningcauses ecosystem N losses and can ultimately decrease soil organicmatter and N availability. However, these effects remain poorlyunderstood due to limited long-term biogeochemical data. Here, weevaluate how fire frequency and changing vegetation compositioninfluenced wood stable N isotopes (δ15N) across space andtime at one of the longest running prescribed burn experimentsin the world (established in 1964). We developed multiple δ15N recordsacross a burn frequency gradient from precisely dated Quercus macrocarpa tree rings in an oak savanna at Cedar Creek EcosystemScience Reserve, Minnesota, USA. Sixteen trees were sampled across fourtreatment stands that varied with respect to the temporal onset of burning and burnfrequency but were consistent in overstory species representation, soilcharacteristics, and topography. Burn frequency ranged from an unburnedcontrol stand to a high-fire-frequency stand that had burned in 4 ofevery 5 years during the past 55 years. Because N stocks and net Nmineralization rates are currently lowest in frequently burned stands,we hypothesized that wood δ15N trajectories would declinethrough time in all burned stands, but at a rate proportional to the firefrequency. We found that wood δ15N records within each standwere remarkably coherent in their mean state and trend through time. Agradual decline in wood δ15N occurred in the mid-20thcentury in the no-, low-, and medium-fire stands, whereas there was notrend in the high-fire stand. The decline in the three stands did notsystematically coincide with the onset of prescribed burning. Thus, wefound limited evidence for variation in wood δ15N that couldbe attributed directly to long-term fire frequency in this prescribedburn experiment in temperate oak savanna. Our wood δ15Nresults may instead reflect decadal-scale changes in vegetationcomposition and abundance due to early- to mid-20th-century firesuppression. 
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  3. Abstract

    Latewood width tree‐ring chronologies from arid‐site conifers in the southwestern United States are correlated with precipitation during portions of the summer monsoon season. The onset date and length of the monsoon season varies across the region, and these regional differences in summer rainfall climatology may impact the strength and timing of the warm season precipitation response of latewood chronologies. The optimal latewood response to summer precipitation is computed on a daily basis using 67 adjusted latewood chronologies (LWa) from the southwestern United States, adjusted to remove correlation with preceding earlywood growth. Most LWa chronologies are significantly correlated with precipitation summed over a period of approximately 4 weeks (29 days) in early summer. This early summer precipitation signal is present in most ponderosa pine chronologies across the study area. It is also evident in Douglas‐fir chronologies, but only from southern Arizona and New Mexico. The Julian date of summer precipitation onset increases from south to north in the instrumental precipitation data for the southwestern United States. The timing of the early summer season precipitation response in most LWa chronologies also tends to occur later in the summer from southeastern Arizona into northern New Mexico and eastern Colorado. Principal components analysis of the LWa chronologies reproduces two of the three most important spatial modes of early summer precipitation covariability seen in the instrumental data. The first PC of LWa is related to the same atmospheric circulation features associated with PC1 of instrumental early summer precipitation, including cyclonic circulation over the southwestern United States and moisture advection from the eastern Pacific. Correlation analyses between antecedent cool season precipitation and early summer rainfall using instrumental and tree‐ring reconstructed precipitation indicates that the tree‐ring data reproduce the multi‐decadal variability in correlation between seasons seen in the instrumental data.

     
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  4. Abstract

    Growth‐increment widths of Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa), a long‐lived bivalve, are used to develop the first marine‐based, multicentennial, annually resolved, and exactly dated archive of Northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). The chronology is sampled from the Tree Nob Islands, British Columbia, Canada, continuously covers 1725–2008, and also contains nine older radiocarbon‐dated segments, which together span 58% of the last 1,500 years. Age‐related growth declines were removed by aligning all increments relative to age of increment formation and fitting with a single detrending curve to preserve low‐frequency signals. The geoduck chronology was used to reconstruct local SST variability across the seasonal window of April through November. The chronology at both the concurrent (lag‐0) and following (lag+1) year are both highly significant predictors of SST in a stepwise multiple linear regression, explaining 54% of the variance in the period of instrumental overlap (1940–2001), passing strict tests of calibration‐verification. Reconstructed SSTs contained significant spectral power at periods from 3 to 64 years, suggesting that 20th century variability in these periodicities is not unusual in the longer‐term context. The period of lowest growth coincided with the Dalton minimum, an episode of reduced solar irradiance from 1790–1830, as well as the 1809 Unknown eruption, suggesting that solar and volcanic signals are present in the SST history. The most conspicuous aspect of the reconstruction is the steady and unprecedented warming trend that began in the mid‐1800s and continues through present. The post‐1976 interval includes the two warmest decades of the reconstruction.

     
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  5. Abstract

    The circumpolar expansion of woody deciduous shrubs in arctic tundra alters key ecosystem properties including carbon balance and hydrology. However, landscape‐scale patterns and drivers of shrub expansion remain poorly understood, inhibiting accurate incorporation of shrub effects into climate models. Here, we use dendroecology to elucidate the role of soil moisture in modifying the relationship between climate and growth for a dominant deciduous shrub,Salix pulchra, on the North Slope of Alaska,USA. We improve upon previous modeling approaches by using ecological theory to guide model selection for the relationship between climate and shrub growth. Finally, we present novel dendroecology‐based estimates of shrub biomass change under a future climate regime, made possible by recently developed shrub allometry models. We find thatS. pulchragrowth has responded positively to mean June temperature over the past 2.5 decades at both a dry upland tundra site and an adjacent mesic riparian site. For the upland site, including a negative second‐order term in the climate–growth model significantly improved explanatory power, matching theoretical predictions of diminishing growth returns to increasing temperature. A first‐order linear model fit best at the riparian site, indicating consistent growth increases in response to sustained warming, possibly due to lack of temperature‐induced moisture limitation in mesic habitats. These contrasting results indicate thatS. pulchrain mesic habitats may respond positively to a wider range of temperature increase thanS. pulchrain dry habitats. Lastly, we estimate that a 2°C increase in current mean June temperature will yield a 19% increase in abovegroundS. pulchrabiomass at the upland site and a 36% increase at the riparian site. Our method of biomass estimation provides an important link toward incorporating dendroecology data into coupled vegetation and climate models.

     
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  6. Cool- and warm-season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December–April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May–July totals. These discrete seasonal chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season; the December–April reconstructions are skillful over most of the southern and western United States and north-central Mexico, and the May–July estimates have skill over most of the United States, southwestern Canada, and northeastern Mexico. Both the strong continent-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool-season reconstructions and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm-season estimates faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean–atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the sixteenth-century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500 years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts, each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Significant 200–500-yr-long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool- and warm-season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the eastern area that began as a result of natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.

     
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  7. Abstract

    High‐resolution biogenic and geologic proxies in which one increment or layer is formed per year are crucial to describing natural ranges of environmental variability in Earth's physical and biological systems. However, dating controls are necessary to ensure temporal precision and accuracy; simple counts cannot ensure that all layers are placed correctly in time. Originally developed for tree‐ring data, crossdating is the only such procedure that ensures all increments have been assigned the correct calendar year of formation. Here, we use growth‐increment data from two tree species, two marine bivalve species, and a marine fish species to illustrate sensitivity of environmental signals to modest dating error rates. When falsely added or missed increments are induced at one and five percent rates, errors propagate back through time and eliminate high‐frequency variability, climate signals, and evidence of extreme events while incorrectly dating and distorting major disturbances or other low‐frequency processes. Our consecutive Monte Carlo experiments show that inaccuracies begin to accumulate in as little as two decades and can remove all but decadal‐scale processes after as little as two centuries. Real‐world scenarios may have even greater consequence in the absence of crossdating. Given this sensitivity to signal loss, the fundamental tenets of crossdating must be applied to fully resolve environmental signals, a point we underscore as the frontiers of growth‐increment analysis continue to expand into tropical, freshwater, and marine environments.

     
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